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Cold War II : ウィキペディア英語版
Cold War II

Cold War II,〔(As Cold War II Looms, Washington Courts Nationalist, Rightwing, Catholic, Xenophobic Poland ), ''Huffington Post'', 15 October 2015.〕 also known as the New Cold War, Second Cold War 〔http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2015/10/03/rubio-us-barreling-toward-second-cold-war/73288022/〕〔http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/who-will-win-the-new-cold-war/518322.html〕〔http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war〕 and Cold War 2.0, refers to conflicts that assumably pitch Russia against the Western World akin to the Cold War that saw the global confrontation between the West and the Eastern Block led by the USSR. Some sources use the term as a possible〔(【引用サイトリンク】title=What a new Cold War between Russia and the US means for the world )〕 (or very unlikely〔(【引用サイトリンク】title=Lawrence Solomon: Cold War II? Nyet )〕) future event, while others have used the term to describe ongoing renewed tensions, hostilities, and political rivalry that intensified dramatically in 2014 between the Russian Federation on the one hand, and the United States, European Union, and some other countries on the other hand.
Tensions escalated in 2014 after Russia's annexation of Crimea, and military intervention in Ukraine. In October 2015, some observers judged the developments in Syria to be a proxy war between Russia and the U.S.,〔〔 and even a "a proto-world war".
The original Cold War was a geopolitical struggle between the Western world, with the United States in the foreground, and the Soviet Union (USSR) and its communist satellite states, that went on from the mid-1940s to 1991; and the term "Cold War II" implies a continuation of the struggle between NATO and Russia. While some notable figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev warned in 2014, against the backdrop of Russia–West political confrontation over the Ukrainian crisis, that the world was on the brink of a New Cold War, or that a New Cold War was already occurring, others argued that the term did not accurately describe the nature of relations between Russia and the West. While the new tensions between Russia and the West have similarities with those during the original Cold War, there are also major dissimilarities such as modern Russia's increased economic ties with the outside world, which may potentially constrain Russia's actions and provides it with new avenues for exerting influence.〔 The term ''Cold War II'' has therefore been described as a misnomer.〔(“The Cold War II: Just Another Misnomer?” ), Contemporary Macedonian Defence, vol. 14. no. 26, June 2014, pp. 49-60〕
==Background==

The Cold War confrontation between the Eastern Bloc and the Western Bloc took place from the late 1940s to 1991. It arose after the allies of World War II, led by the Marxist–Leninist Soviet Union and the democratic capitalist United States and United Kingdom, defeated the Axis powers. Though the allies had had several wartime conferences regarding cooperation during and after the war, relations between the capitalist and communist powers soured after incidents such as Soviet territorial claims to Turkey, the Greek Civil War, the 1948 pro-Soviet coup d'état in Czechoslovakia and the Berlin Blockade. Military alliances formalized the division between the Western Bloc and the Eastern Bloc, as NATO united the Western Bloc countries in a military alliance in 1949 and the Eastern Bloc established the similar Warsaw Pact in 1955. Though the Warsaw Pact and NATO never engaged in open warfare, the two sides fought several proxy wars and backed competing political movements throughout Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Throughout the period, relations between the two sides ebbed and flowed between acute crises and rapprochement (détente). The Cold War definitively ended with the disolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, each of the fifteen Republics of the Soviet Union became independent states.〔Note, however, that the similarly-named Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republics did not gain independence.〕 While the fall of the Soviet Union exacerbated the Nagorno-Karabakh War and led to internal conflicts such as the Georgian Civil War, most of the post-Soviet states managed peaceful transition to independence. The Russian Federation (Russia), whose territory was defined by the administrative boundaries of the defunct Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR), emerged as the sole legal successor to the demised Soviet Union, thus ensuring its de facto dominant role in the resultant Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose alliance of most of the ex-Soviet states, and in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance. Russia inherited the USSR's UN Security Council permanent membership seat as well as most of its military nuclear capacity, but it only inherited the territory within the RSFSR's boundaries, which had never before been a border between independent states. Relations between Russia and the West, already significantly thawed in the final days of the USSR, warmed further during the 1990s, as Russia appeared to move towards democracy and the free market. Boris Yeltsin served as the first President of Russia, and the West generally supported Russian President Boris Yeltsin's successful 1996 re-election over Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.〔 In 1999, former KGB officer Vladimir Putin became Prime Minister of Russia. Putin made the reestablishment of a strong Russian state his top priority, and crushed internal enemies such as Chechen rebels and dissidents.〔
With the Cold War over, political scientists looked for new paradigms to understand world politics.〔 In 1992, Francis Fukuyama published ''The End of History and the Last Man'', in which he argued that all states would eventually adopt liberal democracy. The next year, Samuel P. Huntington published his essay ''The Clash of Civilizations'', in which he posited that civilizations were destined to compete based on their cultural and religious identities. Huntington placed Russia at the core of the Orthodox civilization, while NATO and a few other countries comprised the West. Huntington's thesis continues to hold influence among many, although other political scientists reject his ideas.〔 In Russia, many struggled to accept the end of the political union of the USSR; the term "near abroad" came to refer to the other post-Soviet states, with the implication that Russia had certain "rights" in the near abroad.
Between 1999 and 2013, eleven countries that had been either Warsaw Pact members or part of the Soviet Union, chose to join both the European Union and NATO. Russia voiced deep concern over this NATO enlargement and was particularly opposed to NATO's expansion to the Baltic states. In addition to seeing the expansion of NATO as a threat, many Russian leaders also saw the expansion of NATO into Russia's former sphere of influence as an insult to Russia's status as a great power. Russia also voiced concern over the United States national missile defense plans, as it saw both the NATO expansion and the US missile defense program as a potential threat to Russian national security.〔 In 2012, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia and First Deputy Minister of Defence, Nikolay Makarov, said that if the United States were to deploy an anti-ballistic missile shield in Poland and Czech Republic, Russia would respond by deploying Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. After a four-year stint as Prime Minister of Russia, in 2012 Putin returned to the Russian presidency and continued with new vigour to advance a brand of ideology known as Putinism, which promotes conservative Russian values and opposition to the West, particularly the United States.〔 Nevertheless, in 2013, 51% of Russians had a favorable view of the U.S., albeit down from 57% in 2010.〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/1/country/181/ )
In December 2012, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the U.S. would seek to counter Russian proposals for creating a Eurasian Economic Union of former Soviet states: "It's not going to be called that (Union ). It's going to be called customs union, it will be called the Eurasian Union and all of that, but let's make no mistake about it. We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it".〔(Clinton fears efforts to 're-Sovietize' in Europe ) - Associated Press, 6 December 2012〕 On September 12, 2013, in the context on Barack Obama's comment about American exceptionalism during his September 10, 2013, talk to the American people while considering military action on Syria, Putin criticized Obama saying that "It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation."〔(''Vladimir Putin's comments on American exceptionalism, Syria cause a fuss.'' ) CNN. 12 September 2013. Retrieved 12 September 2013.〕
In October 2014, Putin delivered his Valdai club speech, which sharply criticized the Western powers' foreign policy and actions, especially those of the United States — who, in his opinion, "having declared itself the winner of the Cold War", had taken steps that threw the system of global and regional security as established after World War II "into sharp and deep imbalance":
The Cold War ended, but it did not end with the signing of a peace treaty (). This created the impression that the so-called ‘victors’ in the Cold War had decided to pressure events and reshape the world to suit their own needs and interests. If the existing system of international relations, international law and the checks and balances in place got in the way of these aims, this system was declared worthless, outdated and in need of immediate demolition."〔(Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club ) October 24, 2014.〕


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